Is Linus Killing Linux?

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January 26, 2001 (12:00 AM EST)

As leader of the free world of open-source computing, the Linux buck stops at Linus Torvalds' keyboard.

The 31-year-old Torvalds, a working-class hero to open-source developers worldwide, is the inventor and guardian of an operating system kernel that's at the crux of a $2 billion industry, one whose rapid rise is unnerving executives at Microsoft Corp. (stock: MSFT).

Yet some solution providers, vendors, and industry observers are beginning to question how long one man can steer the evolution of Linux, and whether Torvalds' sole oversight of the kernel, now at version 2.4, is slowing its corporate adoption.

While he's not driven by profit motive, the engineer has significant power over the kernel: Linux is a registered trademark of Linus Torvalds himself.

Windows, in contrast, is the trademark of Microsoft.

They note Torvalds lacks formal accountability for Linux and, as a full-time engineer at chip maker Transmeta Corp. (stock: TMTA), has considerable professional obligations outside his open-source activities.

What's more, industry titans such as IBM Corp. (stock: IBM); Compaq Computer Corp. (stock: CPQ); Intel Corp. (stock: INTC); Hewlett-Packard Corp. (stock: HWP); and Oracle Corp. (stock: ORCL) are pouring billions of dollars into developing Linux products and want to exert more influence on the direction of the kernel, based on customer feedback.

"We need a full-time leader and a nonprofit organization that can be funded by IBM, Compaq, and Dell and the [Linux] distributors," said Hal Davison, owner and president of Davison Consulting, Sarasota, Fla.

Some Linux solution providers view the constantly evolving process of the posting of Linux libraries, patches, and updates to the Internet as inefficient and cumbersome, Davison said.

"VARs are reluctant because they don't see a clear channel. They don't see a Microsoft or strong corporate company saying, 'We're going to be here forever,'" he said.

Torvalds opposes the notion of corporate interests controlling the destiny of the Linux kernel.

However, experts say he'll face pressure from big OEMs and ISVs that are bankrolling the transformation of the technology into a lucrative industry.

The Linux market stands to double this year to $4 billion, according to Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown, a Wall Street investment firm. OEMs are hopeful but leery about Torvalds' casual indifference to market needs and capitalist concerns.

IBM's recent pledge to spend $1 billion to advance Linux commercially in 2001 comes with a no-strings-attached promise today, but observers say that won't last if Linux doesn't pick up steam in the form of revenue and profits.

For example, at the LinuxWorld conference in New York, IBM plans to unveil new Linux initiatives and clients, including Shell Oil.

"In the early stages of open source, it was more of a charitable affair and developers didn't attach a fee," said George Weiss, an analyst at Gartner. "But the vendors are in it for financial success, and they'll think twice about being charitable while answering to their stockholders."

Publicly, blue-chip vendors recognize Torvalds as the lead Linux developer, but note that they aren't beholden to his final nod to carry out their product plans, as they are with Microsoft's Bill Gates.

Still, insiders say Torvalds' casual e-mail sign-offs on the kernel carry tremendous weight in the commercial market and down the food chain from OEMs to ISVs, solution providers, and customers.

For instance, when Torvalds declared Linux 2.4 finished several weeks ago, only Red Hat opted to ship an upgrade based on the "preproduction" Linux 2.4 kernel. Since then, Linux distributors have begun detailing their product deliverables based on the new kernel.

"[Torvalds'] decisions are not ones you'd quickly throw out the window," said Bob Shimp, senior director of database marketing at Oracle, Redwood Shores, Calif., which contributed to Linux 2.4 development.

"When he's ready to release the final version, that's when distributors package it up," Shimp said. "Having a little bit of control like that is a good thing. It all boils down to market forces."

Despite Torvalds' technical reign over Linux, IBM and Compaq have quickly become the industry's de facto Linux leaders, and tensions over the kernel's direction will heighten as market forces intensify, experts say.

"I don't believe open source works well for commercial companies because they can't control schedules," said Michael Cusumano, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Sloan School of Management who sits on the board of solution provider NetNumina Solutions. "Software companies try to have regular development cycles. That's how you build a rhythm for a company."
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