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Reportlinker Adds Global Digital Music Forecast for Online, Mobile, and Subscription Channels, 2010 - 2014: Global Digital Music Markets will See Retail Revenues Increase to $32 Billion by the End of 2014
Oct 07, 2010 (01:10 PM EDT)


NEW YORK, Oct. 7 /PRNewswire/ -- Reportlinker.com announces that a new market research report is available in its catalogue:

Global Digital Music Forecast for online, mobile, and subscription channels, 2010 – 2014: Global Digital Music Markets will see Retail Revenues increase to $32 billion by the end of 2014

http://www.reportlinker.com/p0311184/Global-Digital-Music-Forecast-for-online-mobile-and-subscription-channels-2010-–-2014-Global-Digital-Music-Markets-will-see-Retail-Revenues-increase-to-$32-billion-by-the-end-of-2014.html

This Digital Music Forecast provides a comprehensive forecast of global, regional, and country-specific digital music markets. In this forecast, we cover online, mobile, and subscription channels. For each country, region, globally, and of each channel, we provide forecasts (2009 - 2014) for the following series: Digital music download retail revenues ($ millions), Digital music download wholesale (record company) revenues ($ millions), Digital music download paid users (Thousands), and Digital music download Average Revenue per User ($). For each of the above series, this forecast will provide data on 54 countries and regions and is considered one of the most comprehensive forecasts of the digital music industry.

In addition to the data series, IEMR's Digital Music Forecast provides valuable insights into the fast-changing digital music markets around the world. This report will be useful to:

- Record companies, device manufacturers, mobile operators, handset vendors, software vendors, and internet service providers in need of strategy guidance on the global digital music industry

- Telecom strategists and analysts at vendors, operators, and consulting companies responsible for strategy development and business analytics

- Financial analysts and portfolio managers covering firms in the digital music industry

- Consultants advising their clients on international digital music markets

- Researchers who need to gain a better understanding of the digital music market

Executive Summary

There are now 823 million paid users of digital music worldwide and that number is expected to almost double to 1.55 billion in 2014

While there has been much debate about the impacts of the global recession on consumer discretionary spending, IEMR is forecasting a significant increase in the number of users who will be accessing their music through various digital channels, including online downloads, mobile downloads, and subscription downloads of online portals. We are estimating that the total number of paid users of digital music worldwide will reach 823 million in 2010, and this number is going to increase to 1.55 billion by the end of 2014, for a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 17.0%.

This forecast is higher than our previous 3Q.2009 Digital Music Forecast and represents relatively robust survey data we have seen in our Global Consumer Telecommunications Survey Panel.

While the number of music users downloading their music through their mobile handsets will increase from 483.8 million in 2009 to over 1 billion in 2014, the greatest growth in the global digital music industry will happen through subscriptions to both online and mobile music channels

While the mobile channel will continue to account for a large share of music downloads (its current market share is 70% of all users), we think that both the online single download users and online subscription users will see a higher growth rate over our forecast period. For online single download users, we are forecasting a subscriber CAGR of 21% (previously 25.4%), while for subscription users, our expectations are that these subscribers will grow at a CAGR of 57.5% over the next five years. Their base, however, will continue to be small, reaching about 28.8 million users by the end of 2014.

Digital Music Retail Revenues to reach $32.5 billion at the end of 2014

IEMR is forecasting that global digital music revenues will increase from their current level of $7.8 billion in 2009 to $32.1 billion in 2014, for a CAGR of 36.0%.

Online digital retail spending (which includes digital downloads of full tracks, albums, music video and streams over the fixed network) was $3.5 billion in 2009. This particular market segment will see retail revenues grow by a CAGR of 32.7% to $13.4 billion in 2014.

Digital Music Revenues at Record Companies to reach $21.1 billion at the end of 2014

IEMR is forecasting Record company revenues from downloads of full tracks, albums, music video and streams over the fixed and wireless network will reach $21.1 billion in 2014, from our current estimated $4.8 billion in 2009.

We think that over the next five years, record companies will do a better job of increasing their subscription customers (subscription revenues will increase to $1.8 billion for record companies) and they have also seen the writing on the wall in terms of online access and will begin exploiting this channel more thoroughly over the forecast period. This will result in increased online revenues from digital music downloads of $8.1 billion in 2014 (for a CAGR of 30.6%).

North America

There are now 105 million paid users of digital music in North America and that number is expected to grow to 227.4 million in 2014

Despite the global economic slowdown, the North American digital music market remains strong. We expect that digital music paid download users in the United States and Canada will increase from 105 million to 227.4 million over the forecast period, 2010 – 2014 (Compound Annual Growth Rate is 17.0%. This is higher than our previous forecast of a CAGR of 12.9%).

Online music download users in North America will increase dramatically from 50.4 million in 2009 to 135.0 million in 2014

We expect that music users downloading their music through their mobile handsets in North America will increase significantly from 52.9 million in 2009 to 83.3 million in 2014 (CAGR of 8.6%, previously 4.5%). However, the greatest growth will happen through online and mobile subscription users. We forecast that digital music download subscription users will increase from 1.9 million in 2009 to 9.1 million in 2014 (CAGR of 44.6%).

Digital music retail revenues in North America to reach $11.87 billion in 2014

We forecast that digital music retail revenues in the United States and Canada will increase from $4 billion in 2009 to $11.87 billion in 2014, for a CAGR of 26.8% (previously 33.4%).

In particular, revenues from online single download users of digital music will increase from $2.4 billion in 2009 to $8.3 billion in 2014, for a CAGR of 30.9% (previously 44.0%). The strong growth in the use of the online channel is caused by high broadband penetration in North America. Revenue will continue to grow as illegal file sharing becomes more difficult with various legislation and enforcement.

Digital music revenues at Record Companies in North America to reach $7.3 billion in 2014

We expect that record company revenues from downloads of full tracks, albums, music video and streams over the fixed and mobile networks in North America will reach $7.3 billion in 2014, from $2.53 billion in 2009.

Record companies will be gaining more subscription customers over the next five years. We expect that subscription wholesale revenues (received by record companies) will increase from $108 million in 2009 to $528 million in 2014, for a CAGR of 45.8%.

South and Central America

Paid download users of digital music in South and Central America will increase from 42.6 million in 2009 to 99.3 million in 2014

The digital music market in South and Central America (including Mexico) is growing rapidly. IEMR forecasts that the number of paid users will increase from 42.6 million in 2009 to 99.3 million in 2014, for a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 19.9% (previously 16.7%).

Online music download users in South and Central America will increase dramatically from 11.8 million in 2009 to 39.2 million in 2014

We expect that the majority of paid download users of digital music in South and Central America will continue to use mobile networks. The number of mobile music download users will increase from 30.7 million in 2009 to 57.6 million in 2014. However, in terms of growth rates, subscriptions will increase most dramatically. We forecast that online paid download subscribers will increase from 52,000 in 2009 to 2.4 million in 2014 (a CAGR of 122.1%). We think that this is because mobile downloads of music are generally more expensive, both in terms of traffic and content, compared to broadband downloads and subscriptions allow for consumption of content both from online and mobile channels.

Digital music retail revenues in South and Central America to reach $1.1 billion by the end of 2014

We forecast that retail revenues in South and Central America's digital music market will increase dramatically from $102.9 million in 2009 to $1.152 billion in 2014, for a CAGR of 73.6%.

Western Europe

Digital music paid users in Western Europe to increase from 80.102 million in 2009 to 158.8 million in 2014

We are estimating that the total number of paid users of digital music in Western Europe was 801 million in 2009, and this number is going to increase to 158.8 million by the end of 2014, for a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 15.5% (previously 11.7%).

Online single download users to increase from 57 million to 123.1 million over the forecast period, 2010 - 2014

In Western Europe where broadband penetration is high, the majority of digital music users download music online rather than through mobile networks. We forecast that online paid download users will increase from 57.0 million in 2009 to 123.1 million in 2014 (CAGR of 14.1%, previously 12.7%). Growth of mobile download users will be lower at a CAGR of 13.8%. The number of paid music download users using their mobile devices will increase from 22.5 million in 2009 to 29.8 million in 2014.

Digital music retail revenues in Western Europe to increase to $4.6 billion by the end of 2014

We forecast that digital music retail revenues in Western Europe will increase from $1.2 billion in 2009 to $4.6 billion in 2014, for a CAGR of 32.3%. As broadband penetration becomes more ubiquitous and illegal file sharing becomes more difficult, revenues from online single download users will grow dramatically over the next several years. We expect that retail revenues from online paid download users will increase from $0.806 billion in 2009 to $3.0 billion in 2014.

Eastern Europe

There are now 37.5 million paid users of digital music in Eastern Europe and that number is expected to grow to 69.3 million in 2014

We expect that digital music paid download users in Eastern Europe will increase from 37.5 million to 69.5 million over the forecast period, 2010 – 2014 (Compound Annual Growth Rate is 14.4%, previously 9.2%).

Online music download users in Eastern Europe will increase from 11.9 million in 2009 to 30 million in 2014

The Mobile channel will continue to account for a large share of music downloads in Eastern Europe. The number of users who download digital music using their mobile devices will increase from 25.7 million in 2009 to 39.5 million in 2014 (CAGR of 10.5%). On the other hand, for online single download users, we are forecasting a subscriber CAGR of 20.0%. We expect that online music paid download users will increase from 11.8 million in 2009 to 30.2 million in 2013. The online channel sees faster growth in usage than the mobile channel partly because mobile download is generally more expensive compared to broadband downloads.

Retail revenues in Eastern Europe's digital music market will reach $737.5 million at the end of 2014

We forecast that digital music retail revenues in Eastern Europe will increase from $100.6 million in 2009 to $737.5 million in 2014 (CAGR of 59.5%).

Revenue growth will be the fastest for online single download users. Retails revenues from online paid download users in Eastern Europe will increase from $11 million in 2009 to $192.4 million in 2014, for a CAGR of 94.3%.

Asia-Pacific

Paid download users of digital music in the Asia-Pacific region will increase from 367.3 million in 2009 to 885.1 million in 2014

Although consumers are willing to pay less for entertainment due to the economic downturn, we expect that the digital music market in Asia Pacific will continue to grow rapidly. IEMR estimates that the number of paid users will increase from 367.3 million in 2009 to 885.1 million in 2014, for a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 17.3% (previously 18.7%).

Mobile music download users in Asia Pacific will increase from 315.5 million in 2009 to 734.3 million in 2014

The majority of music downloads happen through the mobile channel in the Asia Pacific region. We expect that mobile music download users in Asia Pacific will increase from 315.5 million in 2009 to 734.3 million in 2014 (CAGR of 17.3%, previously 15.6%).

We think that both the online single download users and online subscription users will see a higher growth rate over our forecast period. Online single download users will increase from 50.4 million in 2009 to 141.8 million in 2014 at CAGR of 22.0%.

Digital music retail revenues in Asia Pacific will reach $13.5 billion in 2014, making the Asia-Pacific region the largest market for digital music retail revenues in the world

We expect that digital music download retail revenues will increase from $2.5 billion in 2009 to $13.5 billion in 2014, for a CAGR of 45.8%.

In the Asia Pacific region, most of the retail revenues come from mobile music downloads. Digital music retail revenues from the mobile channel will increase from $1.4 billion in 2009 to $9.3 billion in 2014, for a CAGR of 53.1%. On the other hand, retails revenues from online downloads (over the fixed network) will increase from $0.23 billion to $1.1 billion over the forecast period, 2010 – 2014.

Middle East and Africa

There are now 50.3 million paid users of digital music in Middle East and Africa and that number is expected to grow to 105.6 million in 2014

We expect that digital music paid download users in Middle East and Africa will increase from 50.3 million to 105.6 million over the forecast period, 2010 – 2014 (Compound Annual Growth Rate is 14.7%, previously 11.7%).

The number of music users downloading their music through their mobile handsets in Middle East and Africa will increase from 36.5 million in 2010 to 58.5 million in 2014

The mobile channel will continue to be the most common channel for downloading music in Middle East and Africa. We expect that mobile digital music download users in the region will increase from 26.5 million in 2010 to 58.5 million in 2014 (CAGR of 17.1%, previously 7.1%).

Regions Covered in this Global Digital Music Forecast

Global

North America

South and Central America

Western Europe

Eastern Europe

Asia-Pacific

Middle East and Africa

Countries Covered in this Digital Music Forecast

Australia

Austria

Belgium

Brazil

Canada

China

Czech Republic

Denmark

Egypt

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

India

Indonesia

Ireland

Israel

Italy

Japan

Malaysia

Mexico

Netherlands

New Zealand

Norway

Philippines

Poland

Portugal

Russia

South Africa

South Korea

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

Taiwan

Thailand

Turkey

Ukraine

United Kingdom

United States

Rest of Middle East and Africa

Rest of Asia-Pacific

Rest of Eastern Europe

Rest of Middle East

Rest of South & Central America

Rest of Western Europe

Series Covered for each Country and Region, 2008 – 2014F

Digital music download retail revenues ($ millions)

Online

Mobile

Subscriptions

Digital music download wholesale (record company) revenues ($ millions)

Online

Mobile

Subscriptions

Digital music download paid users (Thousands)

Online

Mobile

Subscriptions

Digital music download Average Revenue per User ($)

Online

Mobile

Subscriptions

To order this report:

Wireless Technology Industry: Global Digital Music Forecast for online, mobile, and subscription channels, 2010 – 2014: Global Digital Music Markets will see Retail Revenues increase to $32 billion by the end of 2014

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Reportlinker

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